What you must know about hurricane hype, rumor control

One of many posts that went viral during the 2017 hurricane season.

WATCH MORE WEATHER FACTS AND HACKS

What's the forecast? 2018 Hurricane forecast: NOAA Predicts near- or above-average season

  1. Is this coming from a known source? Are you sure? Double-check on sources. At times, people who are looking for likes and shares copy logos and write unscientific analysis just to gain popularity.
  2. Why are they showing only one weather model? Just because a certain model got it right last time doesn't necessarily mean that it will get it right this time. Again, the atmosphere is constantly changing. Until several models -- such as GFS, Euro and ensembles, and their different outputs -- start to show similar outcomes, there is nothing to worry about.
  3. How far is this so-called forecast? Showing a model that is five or more days out is simply wrong. See list item No. 2.
  4. Is there a developed low-pressure area? Models -- some more than others -- often tend to spin off systems at the beginning of the season. The truth is that, if there is no developed area, models can't get a good grasp of any system.

SEE: EYE ON THE TROPICS

Are you noticing tropical hype? Know that there're several ingredients that go into making of trop. system
Water temps might be warm,but they're NOT the only ingredient. Also, there's NOTHING to track yet. Nothing. I am monitoring this, you don't need to stress over this yet. pic.twitter.com/AHxNaCpLKR

— Irene Sans (@IreneSans)