July 2018 update:
The probability of El Niño emerging in the tropical Pacific by fall has risen to 65 percent, and by winter to 70 percent.
June 16, 2018 Original note:
El Niño Southern Oscillation is a weather pattern that takes place in Pacific Ocean, but as everything in the atmosphere, it is connected to other parts of the world and it can bring big changes to our weather pattern, even here in Central Florida.
But, why do we care?
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Currently, a neutral phase is forecast to continue through the summer and early fall. But by next winter it is likely that there will be an El Niño phase in place.
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- Watch: Issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño or La Niña conditions within the next six months.
- Advisory: Issued when El Niño or La Niña conditions are observed and expected to continue.
- Final advisory: Issued after El Niño or La Niña conditions have ended.
- Not Active: ENSO Alert System is not active. Neither El Niño nor La Niña are observed or expected in coming six months.
El Niño Southern Oscillation sea surface temperatures remain warmer than average over the eastern Pacific, specifically near the coast of Peru. If El Niño is occurring during the summer months, or hurricane season, generally there is stronger wind shear over the Atlantic, which limits hurricane formation. Opposite is true for La Niña.
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When El Niño winter is in place during the winter months, The Caribbean Islands tend to have severe drought conditions . During the 2016 El Niño water was rationed in many islands and lots of crops were lost.