Favorable El Niño pattern for winter, but would Central Florida care?

July 2018 update:
The probability of El Niño emerging in the tropical Pacific by fall has risen to 65 percent, and by winter to 70 percent.

June 16, 2018 Original note:
El Niño Southern Oscillation is a weather pattern that takes place in Pacific Ocean, but as everything in the atmosphere, it is connected to other parts of the world and it can bring big changes to our weather pattern, even here in Central Florida.

But, why do we care?

These forecasts are very long range, but they can bring big impacts to vegetation, crops, the economies around the world, as well as our everyday plans. We don´t know exactly when it starts, as El Niño and La Niña phases are based on sea surface temperatures and other strict guides that are only determined when they are happening. But we know that if one pattern is more favorable that the other, then our following season might be more, or less, active, bringing increasing tropical activity or increased threat for tornadoes, or droughts. It makes the long range forecast much more valuable for allowing us to prepare ahead of the upcoming threat.

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Let’s recap: Winter 2017-2018 the northern hemisphere was in a La Niña phase, with it finalizing in April 2018. It was during April that the sea surface temperatures along the equator were near-to- below average, first sign of a changing phase.

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Over twice as many major hurricanes made United States landfall in La Nina years vs. #elnino years (based on data from 1900-2016). pic.twitter.com/yWRoeLBO5z
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) May 16, 2017

Currently, a neutral phase is forecast to continue through the summer and early fall. But by next winter it is likely that there will be an El Niño phase in place.

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The Climate Prediction Center in conjunction with the National Centers of Environmental Prediction, the National Weather Service and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society released an update every first Thursday of the month with the latest about the El Niño Southern Oscillation. In June they determined that although neutral condition is favorable through the summer 2018 in the Northern Hemisphere, there is 50 percent chance for El Niño to appear during the fall and about a 65 percent chance during the winter of 2018-2019. Therefore, an El Niño Watch was place in effect.

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There are different advisories in place to watch out for:

Watch: Issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño or La Niña conditions within the next six months.
Advisory: Issued when El Niño or La Niña conditions are observed and expected to continue.
Final advisory: Issued after El Niño or La Niña conditions have ended.
Not Active: ENSO Alert System is not active. Neither El Niño nor La Niña are observed or expected in coming six months.

El Niño Southern Oscillation sea surface temperatures remain warmer than average over the eastern Pacific, specifically near the coast of Peru. If El Niño is occurring during the summer months, or hurricane season, generally there is stronger wind shear over the Atlantic, which limits hurricane formation. Opposite is true for La Niña.

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When El Niño winter is in place during the winter months, The Caribbean Islands tend to have severe drought conditions . During the 2016 El Niño water was rationed in many islands and lots of crops were lost.

WHAT HAPPENS DURING AN EL NIÑO WINTER IN CENTRAL FLORIDA?

If there is an El Niño phase during the winter months, the jet stream is displaced a bit more south, causing the development of more thunderstorms across the southern half of the U.S., and cooler than average temperatures. The last El Niño phase occurred in the winter of 2015-2016. Florida had over two dozen tornadoes in January and February 2016, combined. The opposite is true for La Niña.