ORLANDO, Fla. — Tropical Storm Elsa slightly strengthened Sunday night as and it is expected to make landfall in Central Cuba on Monday.
11 p.m. update:
Tropical Storm Elsa continues to move closer to Cuba and is projected to make landfall on Monday.
Elsa’s impact on the island may determine how the storm will later impact Florida this week.
#Elsa 11pm Sunday night track: No changes for us, timing still brings worst weather later day Tuesday through Wednesday morning with heavy rain threat & isolated tornadoes. #EyeonTropics pic.twitter.com/O5M87xYud5
— Tom Terry (@TTerryWFTV) July 5, 2021
The storm appears unorganized, with winds at around 65 mph and is moving west-northwest at around 15 mph.
The latest forecast models have Elsa moving past Cuba Monday afternoon before making a possible landfall on the Gulf Coast of Florida early Wednesday.
11PM UPDATE: Tropical Storm Elsa slightly stronger now and forecast to be near hurricane strength by Landfall on the south coast of Cuba Tomorrow. A hurricane warning was issued for Cuban Provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas. pic.twitter.com/iRvCATNkXG
— George Waldenberger (@GWaldenWFTV) July 5, 2021
Several counties in South Florida and on the Gulf are under a Tropical Storm Watch.
No tropical storm watches have been issued in Central Florida.
Tropical Storm #Elsa Advisory 19: Reconnaissance Aircraft Finds Elsa a Little Stronger. Landfall Across Central Cuba Expected By Monday Afternoon. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) July 5, 2021
5 p.m. update:
Tropical Storm Elsa continues to make its way towards Cuba. Winds are still moving at 60 mph. It’s moving northwestward very close to southeast Cuba.
Heavy rain will continue over Jamaica and parts of eastern Cuba on Sunday night. Tropical Storm Elsa will continue over central Cuba and the Cayman Islands on Monday.
5pm updated track for Tropical Storm Elsa. Winds still at 60mph. Tropical Storm Watch extended north through Tampa Bay. pic.twitter.com/PJt9eCCowl
— George Waldenberger (@GWaldenWFTV) July 4, 2021
Updated track hasn’t changed much and shows tropical storm Elsa passing to our west on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The main threats locally will be a few isolated tornadoes and the chance for flooding.
Tropical Storm Watch between Tampa Bay and Key Largo with a Tropical Storm Warning for Key West. #Elsa pic.twitter.com/R1cnI0qLQZ
— George Waldenberger (@GWaldenWFTV) July 4, 2021
There is a Tropical Storm Watch between Tampa Bay and Key Largo with a Tropical Storm Warning for Key West.
11 a.m. update:
Elsa remains a tropical storm with winds of 60mph. It continues to slow in forward speed moving WNW at 13mph.
11am Sunday update: Top winds with Elsa have slightly dropped, down to 60mph. Movement continues to slow a bit, now WNW at 13mph. On this track, Elsa will begin to move over Cuba later today and should weaken into Monday. The overall track has been shifted slightly west. pic.twitter.com/NRPJmbZNsk
— Rusty McCranie (@RMcCranieWFTV) July 4, 2021
On this track, Elsa will move towards Cuba though the day. This land interaction should begin to weaken Elsa later today and overnight.
Based on the current track, Elsa will remain a tropical storm as it tracks up the west coast of Florida.
As Elsa gets closer to Florida, Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings will be extended farther north. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower Keys, including Key West and the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for SW FL from Flamingo to Bonita Beach. pic.twitter.com/ibnZ1OvHPn
— Rusty McCranie (@RMcCranieWFTV) July 4, 2021
Tropical storm conditions are possible in Central Florida, beginning late Tuesday through most of Wednesday.
5 a.m. update:
Elsa remains steady with winds of 65mph. The center is located just east of Jamaica, and south of Cuba.
Short term: If the center stays over water, slight strengthening can occur, but overall, land interaction to weaken Elsa starting later today.
The center of Elsa is somewhere amongst those bright clouds and convection. Even if the center stays over water through the afternoon, land interaction should begin to disrupt the circulation of Elsa, as it tracks WNW closer to Cuba, leading to a weaker storm. pic.twitter.com/db6BhT79W5
— Rusty McCranie (@RMcCranieWFTV) July 4, 2021
11 p.m. Saturday update:
The projected path of the storm continues to aim for the Gulf coast of Florida.
Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for coastal and southern counties in the projected path of the storm.
No counties in Central Florida are currently under a state of emergency.
11pm update: despite recent burst of convection on the east side of Tropical Storm Elsa, hurricane hunters find peak winds slightly weaker, from 70 to 65 mph. It's also moving slower. pic.twitter.com/fQtzvagl1X
— George Waldenberger (@GWaldenWFTV) July 4, 2021
Landfall is expected Tuesday afternoon and Elsa is forecast to remain a tropical storm.
Elsa’s winds have lowered from 70 mph to 65 mph and is currently moving west-northwest at 17 mph.
There is still time for Elsa to gain strength and alter is course, with impact on Central Florida sill a possibility.
Channel 9 will continue to monitor the storm as resident around the state are asked to prepare for possible flooding and damaging wind.
5 p.m. Saturday update:
A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas.
Elsa is near Haiti and still a 70 mph tropical storm and remains fairly disorganized.
5PM Updated track: Tropical Storm Watch now in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas. pic.twitter.com/pJhRzQ31Lb
— George Waldenberger (@GWaldenWFTV) July 3, 2021
There is still uncertainty as to the path Elsa will take over Cuba, and then as a result, how much weakening should occur before moving over the Eastern Gulf and tracking northward.
One thing we have to watch for is if Elsa can reorganize after moving over the Gulf. We are still watching for any potential impacts locally for Tuesday.
In whatever shape Elsa is in, we’re still watching the heavy rain potential. NHC forecast map shows 4 to 6 inches in parts of the west/north Florida peninsula and we’re already sopping wet. pic.twitter.com/5uwl8VwncG
— George Waldenberger (@GWaldenWFTV) July 3, 2021
By Sunday we should see more tropical storm watches for other parts of Florida.
11 a.m. Saturday update:
Elsa has been downgraded to a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph. The forecast from the national hurricane center has Elsa remaining a tropical storm as it moves closer to Cuba later tonight.
11am Saturday Advisory: Elsa has weakened to a tropical storm as winds are now 70mph. Little change in strength today, but as Elsa encounters Cuba tomorrow, a general weakening trend is forecasted. On this track, impacts to Central Florida would be felt Tuesday. pic.twitter.com/9TBHQ2G1PB
— Rusty McCranie (@RMcCranieWFTV) July 3, 2021
Land interaction with Caribbean islands could further weaken Elsa on Sunday and into Monday.
The official track has a tropical storm moving across the Florida peninsula and impacts to Central Florida beginning early on Tuesday.
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Elsa remains a Category 1 hurricane, with winds of 85 mph, but did weaken slightly Friday evening, the National Hurricane Center said.
It is expected to regain strength by late Saturday, the center tweeted.
Hurricane #Elsa Advisory 11: Reconnaissance Aircraft Finds Elsa a Little Weaker. Hurricane Expected to Restrengthen By Late Saturday. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) July 3, 2021
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Channel 9 meteorologist Brian Shields said the storm system is still holding as of Friday. If it holds Saturday, South Florida and the Keys would need to start making preparations. If it holds Sunday, Central Florida would need to make preps for a tropical storm.
LATEST TRACK: Still holding... If it holds tomorrow, South Florida/Keys would need to start making preps. If it holds Sunday, Central Florida would need to make preps for a tropical storm. On Channel 9 right now! pic.twitter.com/tnbSqaIbnE
— Brian Shields, WFTV (@BrianWFTV) July 3, 2021
A hurricane warning was issued Friday morning for Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
Channel 9 meteorologist Rusty McCranie said the storm is forecast to remain a hurricane until land interaction knocks it down to a tropical storm.
As of the 11 a.m. advisory, the track for the storm has inched slightly east closer to Florida. That stayed steady for the 5 p.m. advisory.
McCranie said all of Central Florida is in the “cone of uncertainty” but that the National Hurricane Center continues to stress that there is still low confidence in the current track.
This is the closeup few of the forecast track of Elsa over Florida. All of Central Florida in the "Cone of Uncertainty." Please note: The National Hurricane Center continues to stress low confidence in this track after Monday. The avg track error on Day 5 is 200 miles. pic.twitter.com/mdYCGJEK5p
— Rusty McCranie (@RMcCranieWFTV) July 2, 2021
Elsa 11am Friday Update: Maintains category 1 hurricane strength with winds of 75mph. Still trucking WNW at 29mph. Forecast to remain a hurricane until land interaction knocks it down to TS. Day 4 and 5 forecast (near Florida) has been shifted slightly east. pic.twitter.com/Dz2geZlh0V
— Rusty McCranie (@RMcCranieWFTV) July 2, 2021
The storm is expected to continue to move fast over the next few days.
On the forecast track, the National Hurricane Center said Elsa will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.
#BREAKING: Elsa is now a category 1 hurricane with winds of 75mph. Hurricane Hunters found winds that support hurricane strength. pic.twitter.com/IysgaNSXju
— Rusty McCranie (@RMcCranieWFTV) July 2, 2021
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Forecasters expect Elsa to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba by Sunday.
5am Friday Update: Elsa has strengthened some this morning with winds of 60mph. Still moving very fast at 28mph. The track has changed very little. pic.twitter.com/to71H0NaoW
— Rusty McCranie (@RMcCranieWFTV) July 2, 2021
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Central Florida remains in the “cone of uncertainty.” The storm is still too far out to pinpoint where exactly it will go.
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