ORLANDO, Fla. — University of Florida researchers have projected that the omicron variant surge currently growing in the Sunshine State will eventually become the biggest to date, setting single-day case records well above where the delta variant surge peaked.
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The calculations were made at the end of November, just as the variant established a foothold in the state. The estimated peak of the surge will happen sometime in February, the data shows, topping out around 40,000 cases per day.
READ: Central Floridians looking for COVID-19 tests find long lines, empty shelves
For comparison, the delta surge peaked around 25,000 cases per day, and the state averaged 1,500 per day during the recent lull.
“Omicron variant is more infectious than any virus we’ve seen previously, one and a half to two times more infectious than the Delta variant,” Dr. Ira Longini, a member of the UF team, said. “So, it’s going to spread faster.”
Longini said the surge was happening faster than his team’s projections showed so far, meaning the peak could happen sooner, in January, and with more cases than predicted. He said the next model run would happen as soon as they were certain about December’s data.
However, the forecast for deaths offered good news. The related, and usually delayed, surge is expected to kill fewer Floridians than previous waves, thanks to a combination of vaccinations and less serious cases caused by omicron.
‘Deaths will peak couple of weeks after the cases, sometime in the beginning of March,” Longini said.
Check out EPI's newest projections for what the #omicron wave may look like in Florida between now and February 2022: https://t.co/GUhduPj1rM. Work by researchers in @UF_CLAS, @UFPHHP and @UFMedicine. pic.twitter.com/FiuFC2N0wu
— Emerging Pathogens (@EPI_UF) December 17, 2021
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Other predictions made by the team have already come true, including the fact that omicron is now the dominant variant in the state. Longini’s models predict a sharp rise and fall, perhaps more volatile than any other surge, with a new lull established by April.
His forecasts end after May, but the data sets up conditions that could lead to another surge by late summer, just as Florida experienced this year.
“If another variant arises, depending on its properties, when it gets here we could go through this over and over again,” he said.
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The way to stop the cycle, he added, was by vaccinating the remaining holdouts locally and making sure the entire planet had access to adequate supply.
However, government concerns have been focused on hospital capacities since the beginning of the pandemic. If omicron’s rise does not stretch capacities as in past waves, it could be the beginning of a transition to an endemic virus, similar to the flu.
READ: President Biden lays out plan to curb omicron surge
The key remains vaccinations, Longini said.
“If we don’t do that, we’re not going to be able to control this,” he summarized. “We’re going to have a lot of severe cases among the unvaccinated.”
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Cox Media Group
