Orange County wastewater helps predict increases in COVID-19 cases

ORANGE COUNTY, Fla. — Officials say what’s in the wastewater can be a huge predictor of what’s to come with the pandemic.

“Both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals shed their virus in their stool,” said Ed Torres, director of Orange County utilities. “So we can see that in the wastewater.”

READ: This city has detected a 1,400% increase in COVID-19 in its wastewater this month

Orange County’s been sampling COVID-19 in what you flush since mid-May.

“When we see those concentrations increase, that reflects really a peak of infections in the area,” Torres said.

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He said the concentration of COVID-19 in the wastewater has been pretty stagnant since May at about 200,000 gene copies of the virus per liter.

“But over the last couple of weeks, those concentrations have increased to 1.5 million gene copies of the virus per liter of wastewater,” Torres said.

He said that’s a four to 10-day indicator of what’s to come.

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It’s been proven to be a more accurate predictor than testing numbers because most people who get tested either have symptoms or were exposed to someone who tested positive.

But Torres said up to 70% of the actual cases out there have no symptoms.

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Orange County has three wastewater facilities and has been monitoring to see which areas have higher concentrations of the virus.

“Unfortunately, the last couple of weeks, those numbers have skyrocketed in all three service areas,” Torres said.