ORLANDO, Fla. — New data shows exactly how close the 2020 Presidential Election is in Florida among Latino voters.
A simulation by Latino polling group Equis Labs shows Joe Biden will need to improve on Hillary Clinton’s numbers with white and black voters, while also maximizing support among the state’s non-Cuban Latino voters.
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“What we see in the simulations is a relationship between support and turnout...It’s not enough to see the Latino vote as a get out the vote target; they must also be seen as persuasion targets,” Equis co-founder Carlos Odio said.
For both campaigns, the magic number is 40.
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Toplines/crosstabs from CO and NC (as well as FL, AZ and NV) are here: https://t.co/1kvi4SKksI
— Equis Research (@EquisResearch) September 17, 2020
At 40 percent white support, Joe Biden narrowly loses the state and Donald Trump wins.
This is due in part to Trump’s strength with Cuban-Americans, the largest Latino group in Florida.
The race then becomes a matter of whether Trump or Biden can consolidate support among other Latino groups in Florida while also keeping white and black numbers on track.
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Both campaigns have launched a series of Spanish language ads targeting Florida and tailored to specific regions.
We’re also starting to see outside groups come in with their own messaging as the race enters its final six weeks.
Cox Media Group
