ORLANDO, Fla. — It is better to be ahead than behind with two weeks left. And with two weeks left Joe Biden finds himself ahead in Florida, but if recent history is any guide, that doesn’t bode well for November.
In the Real Clear Politics average of Florida, Biden holds a one point lead with 14-days to go. He also holds one point lead in the newest poll from the University of North Florida.
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However, with 14-days left in the election in 2016, Hillary Clinton led in the RCP average by 2.4 and in 2012 Mitt Romney led in Florida in the RCP average by 2.1; both lost the state.
While this may be interesting anecdotally, 2020 is not 2016 or 2012.
“People know who Donald Trump is and this is very much a referendum on Donald Trump,” says Mike Binder, the Director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida.
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On Tuesday, UNF released its final poll of 2020. The live-caller poll of 863 likely voters found Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump 48/47.
“There is very little uncertainty in this election, our number was around 3% when we were doing this poll, in 2016 that number was up closer to nine,” says Binder noting just how few people remain undecided.